New York City & COVID-19: Analyzing Early Moves Toward Equitable & Sustainable Land Use

Executive Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated, amplified and exposed the socio-economic cleavages in New York City. One of the starkest legacies of the pandemic will be its disparate impact on low income, outer borough communities constituted primarily of black, indigenous and people of color. In addition to job losses, the case and mortality impact of the disease are keyed primarily along socioeconomic and racial axes.

While outer boroughs were disproportionately hit, data suggest they may be first-movers in adapting to new post-COVID behavioral realities. Post COVID land use changes, concentrated in highly impacted neighborhoods, are proposing incremental mid density, affordable residential housing stock and mixed use property development that can enable increasingly self-sustaining neighborhood ecosystems.

These changes may represent early moves to support emerging mobility and living preferences of residents, potentially delivering a blueprint for a more livable, affordable and economically viable city.

COVID-19’s Disparate and Unequal Impact

In Spring 2020, the imposition of mandatory social distancing and the increase of remote work led to a stark, bifurcated reality: knowledge economy workers were able to safely work from home, and in many cases temporarily or permanently relocate to lower cost urban and suburban locations. On the other hand, service workers required to be in-person were disproportionately impacted by job loss, pay cuts, and financial hardship.

More critically, data analysis demonstrates that measures related to economic distress are robust indicators of COVID case volume and mortality rate. Housing insecurity, a standalone economic distress indicator, and indirect indicator of other social determinants of health, shows high correlation with negative COVID related outcomes.

Poverty Rate

The percent of population whose income is under the federal poverty line is a direct indicator of economic insecurity showing high collinearity with the most detrimental COVID related health outcome, mortality rate.

Figure 1: OLS Linear Regression of NYC Community District (CD) Average Federal Poverty Rate and NYC CD COVID-19 Death Rate. NYC DOH, 2021; US Census American Community Survey (ACS), 2018

Looking across New York’s fifty-nine (59) community districts, a ten (10) percent increase in poverty rate is associated with a 6.76% increase in COVID-19 mortality rate. A moderate correlation coefficient indicates that approximately 27% of variation in COVID mortality rate is explained by the community district’s poverty rate.

Avg Commute to Work

Average commute time to work, an indirect indicator of access to quality mass transit and mobility options, proximity to commercial core areas and potential COVID exposure duration also shows high correlation with negative COVID related outcomes.

Figure 2: OLS Linear Regression of NYC Community District (CD) Average Daily Commute Time and NYC CD COVID-19 Death Rate. NYC DOH, 2021; US Census American Community Survey (ACS), 2018

A ten (10) minute increase in average commute time to work is correlated with a 1.7% increase in COVID-19 case rate. A very strong correlation coefficient indicates that approximately 46% of variation in COVID case rate is explained by the average work commute time.

High Housing Cost Burden

Finally, focusing on neighborhoods with the highest levels of housing insecurity, as measured by census tracts where over 10% of the population spend thirty-five percent (35%) or more of household income (HHI) on housing costs. There is a positive, statistically significant correlation between housing insecurity and COVID case volume in the Community Districts where those tracts are located.

Figure 3: OLS Linear Regression of NYC Community Districts average of Census Tracts where >35% of Household Income (HHI) is allocated to Housing Costs and NYC CD COVID-19 Death Rate. NYC DOH, 2021; US Census American Community Survey (ACS), 2018

In fact, a 10% increase in HHI committed to rent is correlated with a 1.2% increase in the COVID-19 case rate. Perhaps more significant, the strong correlation coefficient indicates that approximately 35% of variation in COVID case rate is explained by percent of HHI spent on housing costs.

In aggregate, these statistical analyses paint a stark picture of the robust relationship between measures of economic insecurity and the detrimental health impacts of COVID-19.

The Future Urban Landscape

Looking beyond COVID-19, New York elected officials and policymakers are examining what lessons can be learned from the pandemic’s disparate outcomes, and what policy interventions can mitigate future impacts.

Concurrently, property owners and investors are grappling with the seismic implications of the pandemic on resident’s daily workday and mobility preferences. A September 2020 survey from KPMG indicates 70 percent of employers expect to downsize their office space, while two-thirds of their workers would prefer to work at least two days a week at home.

Experts forecast that the number of employees coming to the average office on any day could fall by as much as 30 percent, driving a decrease in demand for office space by at least 20 percent. All in, New York City commercial real estate could experience declines in rents of 50 percent or more, driving down the market value of retail property by half.

If current trends continue as expected, increased incidence of distributed work will no longer necessitate some of the hyper dense commercial space that comprises much of New York’s urban cores. Further, fewer daily subway trips will drive lower ridership across the city’s transit system. Fewer trips will also include downstream impacts including fewer same-trip, and possibly single trip, retail and restaurant visits.

All-in, these behavioral shifts suggest commercial and retail occupancy rates will not quickly rebound to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the home as the nexus of residents’ leisure and business activity.

Post-COVID Land Use Innovation

In this moment of unique disruption, urban planners and property owners are well positioned to build a more livable, affordable and economically viable city post-pandemic.

Broadly, the city will likely move to smaller centers of social, creative, civic and business activity. Flexible zoning for mixed-use buildings can enable hyperlocal mini-cores. More extensive hybrid zoning can enable more tightly woven work and shopping zones near the home.

With hybrid zoning promoting integrated retail, office, educational, and residential property spaces, residents are incentivized to use alternative forms of transportation such as walking and bicycling. Practical impacts of this include more outdoor open spaces and wider sidewalks. In place of expanded fixed modal infrastructure, including heavy transit, there is an opportunity for highly flexible, resilient multi-modal arterials, the use of which could shift as conditions, including future public health issues, change. These changes align with the “15-minute city” urban planning paradigm, where most human needs and desires are located within the travel distance of 15 minutes.

In a concerted effort to limit potential exposure points, demand for fewer and shorter elevator rides argues for smaller, shorter buildings, meaning less vertical and more horizontal mixed use. In built space, this means a transition from fewer uses stacked into tall buildings with lots of elevators, and more uses separated in less expensive, less dense individual buildings located next to each other. Within residential housing, there should be a shift to increasing the stock of higher-quality affordable housing with designs that incorporate small work areas into the floorplan to make the residence more functional for increasing work-from-home scenarios.

There are early signs forward-looking New York property owners are moving to quickly adapt to the new preferences of a post-COVID city.

An analysis of Uniform Land Use Review Procedures (ULURP), the city’s standardized evaluation process for zoning changes, shows an acceleration of land use alteration application submissions. Twenty (20) ULURP application processes were completed in 2019 and 2020, respectively. In the first two months of 2021, thirty-one (31) applications are either approved or currently in-process. While some volume may be attributable to the COVID-related application review pause between March and August, 2020, the year-to-date run rate of new applications implies new application growth of at least 50% year-over-year.

Perhaps more interestingly, the vast majority of zoning change applications are directly related to the development of built space that a sustainable post-pandemic city demands: mid-density, affordable housing in mixed-use buildings. Of the thirty-one (31) currently open ULURP applications:

• 71% propose increased affordable residential housing stock

• 78% propose approval for mixed-use development

• 65% proposed both increased affordable residential housing stock and approval for mixed-use residential commercial development

These figures are conservative indicators as a portion of the remaining 13% of applications are related to increasing resilience of coastal areas by freezing further development of at-risk waterfront areas. This contrasts with 40% of applications in 2019 that relate to either increased volume of affordable housing units or mixed-use occupancy.

Finally, these changes are occurring almost exclusively in outer borough, non-Manhattan neighborhoods. Many of the communities most negatively impacted by COVID-19 are those experiencing the fastest adaptation to post COVID behavioral preferences. In fact, four out of five community districts with the highest COVID-19 mortality rates have significant new and affordable housing or mixed-use building projects in progress.

Table 4: Incidence of in-progress Uniform Land Use Review Procedures (ULURP) applications with increased affordable housing stock or new mixed use development. as on March 1, 2021. NYC Dept. of City Planning, 2021

One such project, Averne East, in Queens Community District 13, seeks to transform a tract zoned for commercial use to a large-scale mixed development of 1,650 residential units (with 1,320 affordable units), 262,000 square feet of commercial space and a 35 acre nature preserve.

These developments don't necessarily represent a shift in systems-level urban planning or development. Indeed, many current ULURP applications were planned prior to the onset of COVID-19. However, these communities are beginning to incubate land-use patterns that can make New York a more equitable and sustainable city for decades to come.